The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +1.01%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.83%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.13%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +1.04%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +1.15%.
Stocks settled sharply higher on Monday, supported by lower crude oil prices and falling bond yields. Crude prices fell more than -5% after several oil tankers managed to move through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, raising hopes that the waterway could soon reopen. India is attempting to get six other vessels through the strait, while a number of other countries are trying back channels to Iran to ensure safe passage for their ships. The slump in crude prices has knocked the 10-year T-note yield down -6 bp on Monday to 4.22%.
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The war with Iran is in its seventeenth day with no end in sight. The US hit military sites over the weekend on Kharg Island, from which Iran exports almost all of its oil. Meanwhile, Iran launched fresh attacks across the Persian Gulf, disrupting shipments at a key United Arab Emirates oil hub and halting flights at Dubai’s airport.
President Trump said the US is talking to Tehran but that he’s not sure if the Iranians are “ready.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran hadn’t asked for talks or a ceasefire. President Trump said that he is “demanding” that other countries contribute to the defense of the Strait of Hormuz and that NATO would face a “very bad” future if member states failed to help in Hormuz.
Crude oil prices remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies. The IEA last Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region. Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.
Monday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks. On the positive side, Feb manufacturing production rose +0.2% m/m, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m, and Jan manufacturing production was revised upward to +0.8% m/m from the previously reported +0.6% m/m. Also, the Mar NAHB housing market index rose +1 to 38, stronger than the expectations of 37. Conversely, the Feb Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -7.3 points to -0.2, weaker than expectations of 3.9.
Economic news from China was mixed for global growth prospects. On the positive side,