BusinessUSD/INR Slumps as Investors Await Fed Rate Decision

USD/INR Slumps as Investors Await Fed Rate Decision

Indian Rupee Sees Weakness Against USD Due to Economic Factors

On Monday, the Indian Rupee experienced a decline in value against the US Dollar as the USD saw a slight uptick. Despite this, the Indian economy’s positive outlook and consistent foreign investments may limit the Rupee’s downside. Foreign investors have been increasing their holdings in Indian government bonds, signaling confidence in the market. However, factors such as a risk-averse climate, soaring crude oil prices, and higher US Treasury yields could potentially impact the Rupee’s performance and provide support for the USD/INR pair.

The upcoming US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday will be closely watched by investors. It is widely anticipated that the rates will remain unchanged at the March meeting. Additionally, market participants will pay attention to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements during the press conference for insights into future US interest rate movements. On Thursday, India’s S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be released, offering further market direction.

Challenges Faced by Indian Rupee in the Market

  • In February, India’s trade deficit widened to $18.7 billion due to a surge in gold imports amidst geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea.
  • Imports of goods increased to $60.11 billion in February, while exports rose to $41.40 billion, as reported by the commerce ministry.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slightly decreased to 76.5 in March, with inflation expectations remaining steady.
  • US Industrial Production showed improvement in February, indicating positive economic growth.

Analysis of Indian Rupee’s Technical Trends

Currently, the Indian Rupee is trading lower against the USD. The USD/INR pair has been moving within a descending trend channel between 82.60 and 83.15 since December 2023. Technically, the pair remains bearish in the short term, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index signaling downward momentum. The key support level stands at 82.60, with potential further declines towards 82.45 and 82.25. Resistance is noted near the 100-day EMA and 83.00, with a breakout potentially leading to a rally towards 83.15.

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