- Gold pulls back after testing $2,070 ahead of Friday’s pre-holiday close.
- Rising investor bets of faster, more frequent Fed rate cuts squeeze Gold higher.
- US inflation continues to cool off, Treasuries ease back amidst risk appetite recovery.
The price of Gold briefly tested above the $2,070 mark on Friday before retreating towards the day’s opening bids. The Federal Reserve’s main interest rate currently at a 22-year high has triggered great interest in the market for rate cuts from the Fed, with decreasing US inflation fueling the hopes of investors for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts.
In November, the US Annualized Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index grew by 3.2% from the same time last year, which was slightly below market forecasts of 3.3% and was also a decrease from the previous period’s 3.4%.
Market participants are hoping for continued Fed rate cuts due to the softening of US inflation, which has led to decreased pressure on the US Dollar and increased demand for Spot Gold. However, there is concern that the market expectations of rate cuts may be too high; while the Fed’s dot plot of interest rate projections shows a median forecast of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of 2024. Market bets price in 160 basis points in cumulative rate cuts, with some even anticipating a rate cut as early as next March.
As the last full trading week of 2023 comes to an end and the markets prepare for the holiday market break, Friday’s early trading session saw a significant reversal as the US Dollar rebounded from losses and Gold returned to the day’s opening bids level.
XAU/USD Technical Outlook
On Friday, Spot Gold surged over 1.10% before pulling back near $2,050 after hitting $2,070. The XAU/USD pair has been showing strong upward momentum, surpassing the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) in recent sessions, and establishing a pattern of higher lows since early October. The near-term support for the XAU/USD pair is at the 200-day SMA around $1,960, indicating a bullish trend which would need to fall below the $2,000 handle to establish a bearish pattern.
XAU/USD Hourly Chart
XAU/USD Daily Chart
XAU/USD Technical Levels
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