Do you find it scary to draft an early-round running back these days? If so, you’re not alone. The 2023 fantasy football season did not treat many second-contract backs kindly.
While the 2022 fantasy returns at running back weren’t terrible, the 2023 season was a different story. Ten backs that were top-20 backs in 2022 became massive busts this season. Just nine of the top-30 backs in summer ADP panned out as positive picks. It seemed like finding the right answers in the backfield this season was extremely difficult.
Last year’s top 20 at running back did not carry over as expected. Using half-point PPR scoring and ignoring Week 18, the damage can be seen here: pic.twitter.com/xPespdtVth
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) January 17, 2024
Last year, the top-30 ADP backs were rated as 10 in green (the fun picks), 12 in yellow (manageable, if erratic), and eight in red (look out below). However, the grades weren’t as straightforward this season: there were another 10 greens, only six yellows, and a significant 14 reds. Nearly half of your top-30 picks in the backfield were heartbreakers.
The position is getting younger as teams favor first-contract running backs and offer less loyalty to veteran players. It’s evident when you consider that the biggest seven fallers from the 2022 top-20 finishers had these ages: 28, 28, 28, 28, 26, 29, 28. The average age of this year’s top 20 was a relatively young 25.15, despite the presence of graybeard Raheem Mostert (31).
Let’s pick through the three colors and see what we can find.
Green-Light Running Backs — Hits
Christian McCaffrey was the biggest right answer in the first round, a guaranteed weekly touchdown and a smash season tied to the best offensive infrastructure in the league.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery lived up to their 2023 ADP and justified comparisons to D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.
Travis Etienne, despite ordinary efficiency stats, stayed in lineups all year due to his touchdown equity.
Joe Mixon plugged along, even with a lost season from Joe Burrow, and Breece Hall excelled despite a difficult season for the Jets.
James Cook saw an increased role after a coordinator change, and Rachaad White was a significant success.