In search of young breakout pitchers, our initial focus was on exceptional stuff and command of fastballs or sliders, being rather demanding. However, when targeting end-game pitchers for a bargain price in fantasy drafts, we can afford to lower our standards slightly. Whether it’s not having top-notch stuff, command, or visibility on the depth chart, compromises may need to be made once the first 300 players are off the board. At that stage, finding positives becomes crucial.
The following six pitchers possess multiple favorable qualities. Each of them ranks no lower than sixth on their team’s starting pitcher depth chart, showcasing at least one strong out pitch and one commandable pitch. Additionally, they come at a low cost, making them worthy of a speculative pick.
Their average draft position (ADP) in drafts and projected ERA and strikeout rates based on Jordan Rosenblum’s Stuff+ powered projections have been provided. Stuff+ evaluates pitch quality based on physical attributes. Last season, this method unearthed gems like Braxton Garrett, Mitch Keller, and Tyler Wells from the bargain bin.
Louie Varland of the Minnesota Twins stands out with an ADP of ~300, projected ERA of 4.26, and a strikeout rate of 21.6 percent. His arsenal appears primed for success, featuring a 95 mph four-seamer with excellent ride, a slider with good sweep, and an adequate cutter. Despite a lackluster changeup, Varland’s ability to command his pitches effectively sets him apart.
While Varland’s slider still has room for improvement, his standout fastball and the potential for strategic pitch usage against both lefties and righties enhance his value. The risk of transitioning to a relief role looms, given competition for the fifth-starter spot in Minnesota, but Varland’s impressive fastball and promising slider suggest a bright future.
With a diverse arsenal and ample opportunity, Varland presents a compelling option worth considering.