US president Donald Trump’s advisor on Arab and African Affairs, Massad Boulos, announced in February 2026 that Washington and three Middle East states – Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (collectively known as the Quad) – were close to finalising a detailed initiative aimed at ending Sudan’s war. The plan resembled the roadmap shared by the Quad in September 2025.
According to Boulos, the proposal had received preliminary approval from the two warring parties in the civil war: Sudan’s Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Civil war erupted in the country in mid-April 2023 over disputes surrounding military reform and the future configuration of Sudan’s political system. Since then, more than 14 million Sudanese have been displaced inside and outside the country. Tens of thousands have been killed and more than half of the population – around 21 million people – are facing acute hunger.
Meanwhile, the battlefield has produced a de facto territorial split. The army and its allies remain entrenched in eastern, northern and central Sudan, including the capital, Khartoum. The RSF controls much of western Sudan, including all Darfur states.
Active fighting is now largely concentrated in Kordofan, which lies between the two zones of control. The region represents 20% of Sudan’s territory, extends over roughly 390,000 square kilometres and has a population of around 8 million.
Based on my research on Sudan’s political and conflict dynamics, I argue that the prospects for the Quad-led initiative remain limited in the short term, even if it could, over time, help pave the way for a ceasefire.
Continued military escalation, deep mistrust between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary forces, and the army’s refusal to legitimise the RSF undermine prospects for de-escalation.
Additionally, regional and international actors have yet to generate sufficient pressure for peace. Competing regional interests and continued external support for the warring parties reduce incentives for compromise. As a result, the most realistic outcome for now is a temporary humanitarian pause rather than a lasting political settlement.
The obstacles
The latest Quad framework has five main parts:
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an immediate ceasefire
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unhindered humanitarian access
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civilian protection
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the launch of a political process leading to civilian governance
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a reconstruction pathway supported by a pledged US$1.5 billion.
Media leaks suggest the proposal includes coordinated withdrawals by Sudanese warring parties from major cities.
Under the proposal, the RSF would pull back from key positions in South Kordofan and around El-Obeid, the closest RSF-controlled area to Khartoum. Army units in the capital would, meanwhile, be replaced by local police as part of efforts to prepare urban centres for civilian governance.
A UN-led mechanism would monitor the ceasefire and secure humanitarian corridors.
Despite the seriousness of this proposal, developments on the ground indicate that neither side is ready to de-escalate.