Democrats have an early lead in next year’s battle for control of Congress amid an ongoing government shutdown, as more voters say President Donald Trump has not lived up to their expectations on several major issues that propelled him back to the White House in 2024, according to a new national NBC News poll.
Around two-thirds of registered voters say the Trump administration has fallen short on the economy and the cost of living, and a majority say he’s fallen short on changing business as usual in Washington. At the same time, the Democratic Party continues to suffer from low ratings from voters as it seeks to offer an alternative.
Meanwhile, protecting democracy and constitutional rights is a top issue to voters, alongside costs, as Trump continues an expansive agenda of executive actions on immigration and other key policy areas. And a majority of voters believe he’s done more to undermine the Constitution than defend it.
The president’s overall approval rating in the survey sits at 43%, a 4-point decrease since March, while 55% disapprove of his job performance.
And one year before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans in the fight for Congress by 8 points, 50%-42%, the largest lead for either party on the congressional ballot in the NBC News poll since the 2018 midterms. Democrats had a negligible 1-point edge, 48%-47%, in the March survey.
“We will learn a lot in just a few days’ time in New Jersey and Virginia, among other elections, and what impact these results may have on the government shutdown,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll along with the Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
“What we know is that this is an electorate that remains deeply unhappy with the status quo,” Horwitt said.
Democrats’ lead on the congressional ballot is among the larger advantages they have enjoyed in any public polling in 2025. This poll was conducted Oct. 24-28, with a majority of respondents (52%) blaming Trump and congressional Republicans for the monthslong government shutdown — but historically high numbers blaming congressional Democrats, too (42%).
One key question that has arisen during past government shutdowns is whether the politics of the moment persist throughout an election cycle, once a funding impasse has been resolved.
Shutdowns can produce “unstable” moments in politics, McInturff said. “And in our experience, they tend to fade away,” he continued.
A majority of voters still have negative views of the Democratic Party, and just 28% say they have positive views, essentially unchanged from a record-low rating in March. And Republicans retain strong advantages with voters on key issues including border security and crime, though Democrats have caught up on the economy.
Voters, particularly Democrats, are also fired up about the next election. Asked to rate their interest in the 2026 elections on a 10-point scale,