December 2, 2023 8:00 am ET
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ESPN 52.
UFC on ESPN 52 takes place Saturday at Moody Center in Austin, Texas. The main card airs on ESPN following prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 5-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 117-79-6
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Kicking off the main card in Austin is a middleweight matchup between Punahele Soriano and Dustin Stoltzfus.
Despite both men coming off rough losses, this feels like a classic “get right” spot for Soriano.
Aside from Soriano having a clear athletic advantage and skill ceiling, Stoltzfus seems to struggle when striking with southpaws (currently standing at 0-2 against UFC-level lefties).
Dustin Stoltzfus, who faces Punahele Soriano at #UFCAustin, is officially 0-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to G. Meerschaert and K. Daukaus)
Stoltzfus likes to shift stances in order to match southpaws but counter crosses seem to be the common culprit. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/yH9rm6xQh8— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) December 1, 2023
For that reason, I’ll side with Soriano to get back on track with a first-round knockout.
Filling out the main card on ESPN is a lightweight fight between Joaquim Silva and Clay Guida.
As amazing as it is to see Guida still competing in 2023, I have a hard time siding with the veteran here.
Not only is Silva the superior striker and athlete, but the 34-year-old also keeps a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in his back pocket that will likely serve him well against the American.
I’ll pick Silva to keep things standing until he eventually scores a club-and-sub in round 2.
Serving as a welterweight welcoming committee, Sean Brady will welcome Kelvin Gastelum back to 170 pounds.
Even though Gastelum hasn’t fought in this division since 2016, the Mexican-American appears to be in the shape of his life heading into this contest.
Brady is a strong welterweight who garnered decent hype over the years, » …Read More rn