NewsBiden is letting Ukraine use a powerful new weapon. What happens next?

Biden is letting Ukraine use a powerful new weapon. What happens next?

Nearly three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion into Ukraine, the Biden administration gave Ukraine the green light to strike deeper into Russia using US-supplied longer-range missiles.

The Ukrainian military quickly put that permission to use: On Tuesday, it attacked a weapons depot about 70 miles from Ukraine’s border.

The US and NATO allies have hesitated to provide sophisticated weapons like the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) that Ukraine used in that attack, fearing Russian retaliation against NATO sites — or even nuclear escalation.

Raising that specter on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new version of the country’s nuclear doctrine, which would theoretically make it easier for Russia to use nuclear weapons in this conflict. The new doctrine specifically allows for a nuclear strike in response to a strike with conventional weapons — like the longer-range missiles Ukraine now has permission to use — if those attacks involved the “participation or support of a nuclear power,” likely referring to the US and other NATO countries.

Throughout the war, Russian leaders have threatened to use the country’s nuclear weapons in the conflict if they believed they were necessary. That has led Ukraine’s allies to be cautious about the amount of aid they’ve offered, and has led to limits on what Ukrainian troops can do with those weapons.

Ukraine’s new ability to use longer range missiles to strike Russian territory — and Putin’s confirmation of new nuclear rules — have again raised the question: Could Russia’s war in Ukraine escalate into a nuclear conflict?

Throughout the war, experts have downplayed Russia’s appetite for nuclear conflict. But the rapid escalation of the conflict in recent weeks, and particularly Russia’s new nuclear doctrine, could mean that possibility is closer than before.

What are the chances that Ukraine’s new missile capabilities lead to nuclear escalation?

Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, Putin and other officials have made statements, both explicit and oblique, that Russia might be pressed to use nuclear weapons. Most experts agree that the risk of Russia using such weapons is low, but it’s not negligible.

A previous version of the doctrine Russia updated on Tuesday said the country would tap into its nuclear arsenal only under four circumstances: receiving credible data of a ballistic missile attack; nuclear or other WMD attack against Russia or its allies; attacks on Russian nuclear infrastructure; or conventional weapons attacks that threaten “the very existence” of the Russian state. Under the new doctrine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated attacks like Ukraine’s on Tuesday could trigger a nuclear response.

That change shouldn’t be taken as a response to Ukraine’s strike, however, Samuel Charap, distinguished chair in Russia and Eurasia policy and senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, told Vox.

The new doctrine “has been in the works for a long time,” Charap said. “The timing may be tied to the attack of decision,

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