No vice presidential running mate in recent memory has been scrutinized in quite the way that J.D. Vance has. Because he presents himself as an intellectual standard-bearer of the MAGA movement—and has a long trail of public statements that crystallize the movement’s views in rather colorful terms—scrutiny of Vance has gone well beyond the usual oppo-research digging, resulting in unusual media curiosity about his genuinely held philosophy and worldview.
That’s why a major new poll of the two vice presidential candidates is so notable. The survey—which breaks down public perceptions of them in demographic detail—suggests Vance’s style of right-wing populism may have a long way to go to achieve the broad-based appeal that its proponents have long hoped for. It’s often said that Trump chose Vance to maximize the ticket’s appeal to non-college white voters, but doing so may come at a steep price with other voter groups among whom Trump must improve if he wants to win.
The poll—from The Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos—finds that overall perceptions of Vance are far more negative than those of Governor Tim Walz. While 42 percent of Americans view Vance unfavorably and 32 percent view him favorably—putting him 10 points underwater—Walz is viewed favorably by 39 percent to 30 percent. That’s a net difference of 19 points.
Even more striking is how various groups see Vance:
- He is viewed favorably by only 24 percent of independents, versus 39 percent unfavorably.
- He is viewed favorably by only 23 percent of self-described moderates, versus 41 percent unfavorably.
- He is viewed favorably by only 22 percent of 18- to 39-year-olds, versus 44 percent unfavorably.
- He is viewed favorably by only 32 percent of women, versus 40 percent unfavorably (interestingly, Vance fares a tad worse among men).
- He is viewed favorably by only 28 percent of Hispanics, versus 39 percent unfavorably.
- He is viewed favorably by only 9 percent of Blacks, versus 50 percent unfavorably.
- He is viewed favorably by only 32 percent of suburbanites, versus 42 percent unfavorably.
- He is viewed favorably by only 33 percent of college-educated whites, versus a striking 55 percent unfavorably.
By contrast, Walz is viewed positively on net by those groups—though his favorable ratings are clearly not high enough among them yet.
Unsurprisingly, Vance is viewed positively by non-college whites (+9 points), rural voters (+13 points), and white evangelicals (+37 points). This is the trade-off that Trump made in picking Vance: Brimming with certainty that he would win by a landslide before Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate, Trump chose a running mate who would juice his base, with little concern about his lack of appeal to voters outside it. That hubris, a key weakness of MAGA, has, by encouraging the Vance pick, seemingly produced a serious mistake.
This trade-off was not supposed to be necessary.