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Recent Poll Shows Trump Leading Biden Among Independent Voters
The survey, conducted on behalf of The Messenger by Harris X, found Trump leading President Joe Biden with 47 percent to 40 percent. Should the 2024 election be a rematch of the 2020 race, with 14 percent saying they were undecided. It was conducted online between November 27 and December 1 among 2,018 registered voters.
Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London in the U.K, shared, “It seems like every poll now adds to the avalanche of evidence showing that Donald Trump isn’t just electable. He might even be the favorite to retake the White House at this point,” with Newsweek.
The survey found that while a majority of Democrats backed Biden and a majority of Republicans backed Trump, more independent voters—who could ultimately swing the election in 2024—were supporting the former president.
Former President Donald Trump attends a football game at Williams-Brice Stadium on November 25, 2023 in Columbia, South Carolina. Trump leads President Joe Biden among Independents in a recent poll.
Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images
Forty-three percent of independent voters said they would vote for Trump over Biden if the 2024 election were today, while 33 percent said they would support Biden. Some 24 percent of independent voters said they did not know or were not sure who they would vote for.
Independent voters are more split when Biden is against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is trailing Trump in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Thirty-four percent of independent voters said they would vote for DeSantis, while 33 percent chose Biden and 33 percent said they were not sure.
Biden also trailed with Independents when up against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who is working to position herself as Trump’s chief rival for the GOP nomination.
Thirty-eight percent of independent voters backed Haley, while 28 percent backed Biden and 34 percent said they were unsure.
The poll also appeared to show that neither Haley nor DeSantis pose too much of a threat to Trump.
Seventy-six percent of Republican voters said they would back Trump if the Republican primary contest was between him and Haley, while 19 percent backed Haley. However, more independent voters backed Haley in this matchup, with 49 percent saying they would vote for her, compared to 36 percent backing Trump.
Trump was the overwhelming choice for Republican voters when pitted against DeSantis in the GOP primary, with 73 percent backing the former president while 21 percent supported DeSantis. Independent voters also favored Trump in this matchup, with 37 percent backing him and 27 percent backing DeSantis.
The survey “undercuts any arguments from either Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis that Republican voters should pick them in the primaries because Trump simply can’t win a general election,” said Gift.