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By Bagehot
Good ol’ Theo Bertram, an adviser in Downing Street under New Labour, has caused quite the stir with his blog post about the art of spinning local-election results. He makes an interesting point about the effect of setting expectations and framing results based on the party’s showing in 2007 which has everyone intrigued. See, he highlights the fact that the opposition Conservatives gained 911 seats and Labour lost 505—yikes! But, thanks to some clever spin tactics, Labour’s talking heads managed to convince everyone that the Tories had fallen short, and that Labour had dodged a bullet. It’s fascinating how playing with expectations can shape public opinion!
That’s definitely important to keep in mind when evaluating Labour’s performance in yesterday’s local and regional elections. At the moment, the party has lost 24 seats on English councils, with five Tory gains—ouch. It’s not just disappointing—it’s extremely disheartening. But let’s dig deeper into the context! Historically, opposition parties do really well in local elections, especially when the sitting government is bit of a mess. So, this should be the time for Labour to shine, right? Well, not quite. In fact, the results are worse than what even some experts predicted.
What’s interesting is that the last time these council seats were up for grabs in 2012, Labour did pretty well, which might set the 857 gains for Ed Miliband back in the day into perspective. But you know what? Even with those wins, there were still signs of trouble. Looking at all of this, it’s clear that the party could have and should have done much better. Can Labour really hope to win the national election in 2020 with these results? Probably not.
What’s worse is that Labour lost ground in every nation of Great Britain, not just a little, but like, a lot. The swing in Nuneaton, a significant marginal constituency, was greater than in the general election. And let’s not overlook the fact that Labour got third place in Scotland. Ouch.
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