PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
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Best Picture
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
5. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
6. The Holdovers (Focus)
7. Past Lives (A24)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
9. Maestro (Netflix)
10. The Zone of Interest (A24)
Major Threats
11. Society of the Snow (Netflix)
12. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
13. May December (Netflix)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
15. Rustin (Netflix)
Possibilities
16. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
17. Air (Amazon/MGM)
18. Origin (Neon)
19. Ferrari (Neon)
Best Director
Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Major Threats
6. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
7. Celine Song (Past Lives)
8. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
9. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
10. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
11. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron>)
Possibilities
12. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
13. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn) — podcast
14. J.A. Bayona (Society of the Snow)
15. Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
16. Ava DuVernay (Origin) — podcast
17. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
Best Actor
Frontrunners
1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. » …
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