Numerous incidents of suspected Russian-linked sabotage of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea has seen tensions rise among nearby countries, and an increased Nato presence.
In the latest incident, on January 26, the Swedish coast guard boarded a ship in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of anchor dragging and suspected sabotage of vital undersea cables providing power and communication across the region. Latvia also sent a warship to the incident to investigate damage to fibre-optic cables. The Bulgarian vessel is now under investigation. The owner of the ship has denied any involvement with sabotage.
The nations along the Baltic Sea coast have become increasingly worried about suspected sabotage of their undersea infrastructure in recent months by vessels deliberately dragging their anchors along the seabed and have started to station military vessels at sea every day.
Critical undersea infrastructure can be easily damaged by anchor dragging. Russia has denied involvement in these incidents.
But there have also been credible reports that Russia has actively been mapping undersea infrastructure.
In response to rising concerns about infrastructure security, Nato increased its regional naval presence by launching the Baltic Sentry mission on January 14, which includes maritime patrol vessels.
What’s the context?
In recent months there have been several reports of damage being caused to undersea cables by vessels as they pass through the Baltic Sea. Attacks on undersea cables are comparable to traditional espionage and information operations . This is activity conducted at the level below that of warfare, designed to send certain signals to adversarial nations. The purpose could be to send a message that the capability exists to essentially cut off and isolate nations from the outside world.
These cables are extremely valuable. They are used to transport gas, electricity and internet traffic between nations. And recent incidents have led to a reduction in the capacity of electricity that can be transported, although this has not yet caused widespread power outages. Another concern is that damage to internet cables can hold up the passage of information generated by the financial markets. This is particularly vulnerable due to its time-sensitive nature.
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How can cables be protected?
Protecting the cables is a challenging task. There is little that can physically be done to prevent other vessels crossing seas and oceans due to the concept of freedom of navigation of the high seas. And Russia has a right of passage for its ships, for example, from St Petersburg to the North Sea.
Investigations into apparent threats can be conducted without actually seizing the vessel or impeding its progress in any way. This can done through the use of GPS tracking data and combining that with other evidence such as eye witness testimony.
While these cables can get damaged through natural means, the targeting of them could be a way for a nation to operate against its adversaries in a more covert manner and below the threshold of armed conflict.