Comment: The global pipeline of coal projects shrank dramatically in recent years – but now coal is making a comeback in Asia, threatening climate goals
Lidy Nacpil is coordinator of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development (APMDD).
A few years ago, the world was on a path to ending coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and the single biggest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. Active and sustained campaigning brought coal closer to the point of death and the world to a coal-free future.
Several developments made this evident. One, the shrinking of the pipeline of new coal and the shutting down of hundreds of coal projects across the globe. Two, the commitment of 44 governments to end the construction of new coal plants and cancellation by a further 33 countries of new coal projects. Three, the shifts in the policies of several public financial institutions and private banks to either wind down or immediately end coal financing. And four, the emergence of cheaper renewables that downgraded new investments in coal as a costly mistake.
Since 2015, more than half of countries with coal power have reduced or kept their operating capacity flat. In addition, announced, pre-permit, permitted and construction coal capacity was reduced by 68% globally. From 2015 to 2021, changes in the global pipeline of proposed coal power plants showed a 76% collapse in coal construction.
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There was broad consensus that coal power generation must be rapidly phased out to reduce emissions significantly and, consequently, the risks and impacts of climate change. Anti-coal campaigns hounded corporations on the terrible economics of coal-based energy. They successfully pressured hundreds of firms to stop financing or pull back investments in coal or issue policies to limit exposure to coal. They also made coal uninsurable.
A litany of research and analysis of the implications of coal combustion on climate targets echoed the pressure. According to a 2021 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, coal phase-out must take place in advanced economies by 2030 and in the rest of the world by 2040. An assessment model exploring the implications of the 2C temperature limit has found that, globally, over 80% of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 to meet the 2C target.
Conflict boost for coal
Despite all of this, coal is rising again today, driven by demand growth and operating capacity increases in developing and emerging economies. Global coal use and capacity rebounded in 2022 and grew to an all-time high in 2023. Total global capacity in pre-construction also increased by 6% in 2023.
The demise of coal, as it turns out, is a lot of gas, literally and figuratively.
The failure of governments to rapidly shift to renewable energy is key to coal’s staying power. The energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine triggered a buying frenzy for coal and gas,