Robert Rapier
Robert Rapier is a chemical engineer in the energy industry. He has 25 years of international engineering experience in the chemical, oil and gas, and…
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By Robert Rapier – Sep 06, 2024, 6:00 PM CDT
- Oil rig counts are an unreliable indicator of presidential success in the oil industry, as they are influenced by various factors like oil prices, technological advancements, and global events.
- Technological innovations like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have significantly boosted U.S. oil production, even with fluctuating rig counts under different presidents.
- U.S. oil production reached record levels under President Biden, despite lower rig counts compared to previous administrations, highlighting the complex dynamics of the oil industry.
One of the most popular articles I have ever written is Average Gasoline Prices Under The Past Four Presidents. It has been used by people across the political spectrum to support different points.
Republicans often cite it to show that gasoline prices were lower under Donald Trump compared to Barack Obama or Joe Biden. On the other hand, Democrats point out that Trump inherited low prices from Obama, and that those prices rose for two consecutive years under Trump.
Both points are valid, but the broader context discussed in the article is often overlooked. The graphic in that piece acts like a Rorschach test, where people often see only what supports their viewpoint.
I anticipate a similar reaction to today’s article, which delves into claims about which presidents were most favorable for oil drilling. Using data from the Baker Hughes Rig Count, I created a graphic showing the average number of rigs drilling for oil each year under the past four presidents. Republican presidents are marked in red, and Democrats in blue.
Average Oil Rig Count 2001-2024. Robert Rapier
The data alone might lead some to the misleading conclusion that President George W. Bush, often seen as pro-oil, was bad for drilling. Meanwhile, President Obama, who wasn’t exactly known as a friend to the oil industry, was by far the best of these presidents when it came to drilling. However, this data needs context.
If you were to overlay oil prices on this data, it would show that higher oil prices typically lead to increased drilling. However, the story is not just about prices but also about technological advancements.
Today, oil companies can extract far more oil per rig than they could in 2001. Even though the rig count declined sharply after its peak under Obama, U.S. oil production continued to set records year after year. Last year saw the highest oil production in U.S. history, and we are on pace to top that this year.
In the decade before Bush became president, oil prices had averaged about $20 per barrel.