The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 points Friday, after crossing that threshold Thursday for the first time in its 128-year history. President Joe Biden’s campaign spent the day gloating, particularly over former President Donald Trump’s prediction that the stock market would collapse under Biden. The victory lap was understandable: “Dow hits 40,000” can be added to “4% unemployment,” “15 million jobs created” and a host of other data points showing Biden’s economic record is far stronger than his presumptive opponent’s.
But as happy as Biden’s team is this week, news of the Dow’s record high doesn’t fix the re-election campaign’s biggest problem. Americans’ views of the Biden economy have remained dim. To fix that, the president will have to engage in some class warfare.
It’s unlikely that a record stock market will change voters’ minds given that other metrics haven’t.
Of all the economic indicators that consume daily news, the stock market is the least reflective of most Americans’ fortunes. (More than 80% of Americans’ stock holdings belong to the wealthiest 10% of households.) It’s unlikely that a record stock market will change voters’ minds given that other metrics haven’t. After all, Americans’ dim views of the Biden economy have persisted even as other more widely relevant measures have held strong (job creation) or improved after earlier troubles (inflation).
Fortunately, the diagnosis remains relatively straightforward: Voters hate paying more for things. Speaking to The New Republic earlier this week, Biden campaign pollster Jefrey Pollack attributed the campaign’s polling deficit in key Midwestern states to “a lot of voters with real economic challenges. We all know that the No. 1 issue, when you ask people today, is still inflation or the economy.”
While the price trajectory for food, cars and other important goods has finally flattened out, rent and auto insurance continue to keep inflation data somewhat elevated. And Americans still understandably resent previous price increases earlier in Biden’s tenure. Plus, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have meant higher mortgage payments, car payments and other interest payments. Those higher costs aren’t reflected in inflation statistics, but still hammer low- and moderate-income Americans.
Unfortunately, Biden’s policy options are limited. Republican control of the House of Representatives closes off any legislation. And he can’t force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next meeting — even though it really should.
That leaves the powers of the presidency — more specifically, the bully pulpit. In late 2023 and early 2024, Biden gave several addresses, including the State of the Union, attacking “corporate greed” and “shrinkflation.” But since that well-received address, the president seems to have largely stepped back from such attacks.
That’s a mistake. Biden should hammer away at exploitative corporations for their role in squeezing Americans’ pocketbooks — and dare Trump to do the same, secure in the knowledge that he won’t.
Voters are already receptive to this line of attack.