US Dollar Gains Momentum with Strong NFPs and Increased US Yields

• The US Dollar (USD) continued to command the financial markets as it soared to the 104.05 mark, primarily because of positive labor market figures and a surge in yields, which suggests that markets are delaying rate cuts in 2024. The gains for the USD Index (DXY) were fueled by economic reports from November, prominently Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls, all of which collectively fuelled hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed).
• Moderating US inflation figures from October fuelled dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s stance at the beginning of November. However, Fed officials’ signals considering further tightening are dampening these expectations, and strong labor market data reaffirms this cautious stance by the bank, which is requesting further evidence on the economy cooling down. The upcoming inflation data from November and the Fed meeting next week will be critical determinants for the USD’s short-term trajectory.

Daily Market Movers: US Dollar rising on the strength of labor market data

• The US dollar is making gains today, riding on a wave of strong labor market data and climbing yields.
• According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November’s Average Hourly Earnings MoM figures revealed a better-than-expected increase of 0.4%, exceeding both consensus and previous numbers of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
• The Nonfarm Payrolls for November showed 199K new jobs were added to the US economy, surpassing consensus expectations of 180K and the preceding number of 150K jobs.
• The Unemployment Rate came in at 3.7%, lower than the anticipated figure of 3.9%.
• US bond yields are rising, with rates for 2-year, 5-year and 10-year bonds rising to 4.72%, 4.24%, and 4.23%, respectively.
• As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the market expects no rate hike in the December Fed meeting but anticipates less easing in 2024.
• Next week will see Tuesday’s release of the Headline and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, which will likely shape the expectations for the next Fed decisions.

Technical Analysis: US Dollar bulls step in, but bears are still in command

The indicators on the daily chart reflect a short-term conflicted landscape for the US Dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) position is on a positive slope, albeit in negative territory. This signals growing buying momentum, but it isn’t robust enough to draw a definitive recovery. On the other hand, the histogram of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator paints a similar picture with green bars, which suggests that the selling pressure is declining.

Regarding the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the index sits above the 20-day SMA, yet below the 100-day SMA. Nonetheless, with respect to the 200-day SMA,

» …
Read More rnrn