A longstanding, simmering conflict between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah is escalating.
Overnight on Sunday, exchanges following devastating attacks on Hezbollah’s communication systems ratcheted up tension across the border, with chances of war imminent, according to Israeli Army former Brigadier General Amir Avivi.
What’s happening right now?
A lot.
On Saturday, an Israeli strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut killed 14, including a senior Hezbollah commander, and wounded 66.
Israel’s military says it launched 400 attacks on Lebanon overnight on Sunday, while Hezbollah says it fired rockets at the Ramat David airbase near the Israeli city of Haifa.
The Iran-allied Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed to have launched al-Arqab missiles at Israeli bases, though no casualties are reported.
This was the second Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in less than two months, the earlier killing two children and wounding 74 people to eliminate senior commander Fuad Shukr.
Why is this happening now?
Israel has announced it is turning its attention northwards, i.e. confronting Hezbollah, which has been engaging in a steady exchange of fire with Israel in support of its ally Hamas since Israel’s war on Gaza began in October.
Over the last week, Hezbollah has experienced two attacks on its communications systems that it blames on Israel, while Israel has dramatically increased troop numbers on its border.
On Wednesday, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant spoke of a “new phase” in the war on Gaza, announcing the deployment of the 98th Division, comprising 10,000 to 20,000 troops, to join Israel’s restive Northern Command of four armed brigades near the Lebanese border.
Gallant’s comments were the closest Israel has come to acknowledging responsibility for the two attacks on Hezbollah’s communication systems, the second still occurring as Gallant spoke.
Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli air strike on southern Lebanon on September 21, 2024 [EPA-EFE/STR]
Between September 17 and 18, booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkie radios belonging to Hezbollah were detonated, killing 37, including two children, and wounding and maiming thousands.
According to analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera, the attacks have created calls for a dramatic response from within Hezbollah, despite the group being compromised.
How might this escalate?
Alliances on the part of both Israel and Hezbollah could pull other actors in.
Hezbollah and Iran have worked in tandem since Hezbollah’s founding as a response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982.
Israel, for its part, has consistently pitched its domestic battles with groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah as part of a wider battle against Iran.
Iran, while not yet nuclear-armed, is widely considered to be close to achieving that status after an agreement to limit the country’s nuclear development was abruptly dissolved by former US President Donald Trump in 2018.
Even without a nuclear weapons programme, Iran is one of the most powerful military forces in the region.