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Topline
In a new survey, President Joe Biden is shown to be trailing behind former President Donald Trump in the battleground states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. This coincides with an evident struggle for Biden to connect with crucial voter demographics, including young people and Black voters.
US President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on … [+] December 12, 2023. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
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Key Facts
The poll indicates that Biden would lose each of the seven swing states, with estimates ranging from a two-point margin in Pennsylvania to a nine-point gap in North Carolina. According to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, Trump leads with an average of five points across the states.
The survey, conducted from Nov. 27 to Dec. 6 and encompassing 4,935 registered voters, revealed that 58% of voters in these key states hold a negative view of Biden, in contrast to 53% who feel negatively about Trump. The gap further illustrates Biden’s struggle with his support base, as more of his voters (23%) express dissatisfaction compared to Trump’s voters (17%).
Biden’s backing among Black voters has declined since October, as has their confidence in his ability to manage the economy, as shown by the survey findings. Voters’ apprehension about Biden’s economic competencies extends to the entire electorate, with more people trusting Trump to handle economic matters such as housing, interest rates, and inflation.
Despite promoting his pro-union stance and pardoning student loans, Biden has lost traction among voters in Michigan, where he previously joined striking union members. A plurality of Gen Z voters also feel that Biden could be doing more to assist with student loan repayments.
Surprising Fact
A notable 20% of Democrats support the GOP-led impeachment inquiry against Biden, indicating a level of dissatisfaction within Biden’s own party. This comes as the House voted to formalize the inquiry, permitting the GOP-led committees to request records and testimony from Biden and his associates to aid their probe.
Tangent
When independent and third-party candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, are included, Trump’s lead in the seven swing states widens from 5% to 7%, the survey demonstrates.
Big Number
Nationally, Trump leads Biden by 2.3 points in a hypothetical general election matchup, as shown by RealClearPolitics’ polling average. This indicates Trump’s consistent lead or tie with Biden in nine out of the last 10 polls.