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See what Analyst Rekt Capital recently opened up about the five Bitcoin Halving phases, placing specific focus on the last three. As the Halving approaches, he said that understanding these phases can help in navigating the Bitcoin market in 2024.
In the initial pre-halving period, there’s a noticeable contraction, signaling a limited timeframe for a potential deeper retracement in the next 35 days. Historically, retracements have occurred, offering a chance to buy at a discount. While a 63% crash, like in the 2016 bear market, is unlikely, retracements of 18%, 20%, or 25% are reasonable expectations.
Looking at the pre-Halving rally, strong upside is observed two months before the actual event. Examining past cycles, whether it’s a V-shaped reversal or a breakout to new highs, a pre-Halving rally is a bullish precursor. It sets the stage for positive momentum leading into the Halving, a crucial event.
Phase three involves the pre-Halving retracement, typically occurring around the Halving event itself. This retracement, ranging from 20% to 40%, allows for a healthy correction after the preceding rally. The patient approach is key here, as it’s a prelude to the post-Halving phase.
The post-Halving resistance phase is characterized by a prolonged reaccumulation period. Bitcoin’s price tends to move sideways for weeks or months, testing the patience of traders and investors. Volatility during this time can shake out the impatient ones looking for quick gains.
Finally, the post-Halving parabolic rally is the last phase. After the reaccumulation period, Bitcoin transitions into a phase of exponential growth, reaching new all-time highs. This marks the peak of excitement and FOMO, with gains coming rapidly. However, it’s crucial to recognize that this parabolic phase, though exhilarating, won’t last forever.
As the market enters this final phase, opportunities for “Buy the Dip” are prevalent. A potential pullback in the next 30 days may offer a last opportunity for a discounted entry, setting the stage for the pre-Halving rally.
Qadir AK is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the cryptocurrency space.