Before South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem blew herself up with Puppygate, I had assumed she would be Trump’s pick for running mate. She has the Mar-a-Lago Barbie look, which Trump obviously loves, and putting a woman on the ticket might have helped with those suburban moms who don’t like him very much. When she fell out of contention I figured Trump would choose North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, a “central casting” guy who looks like he could be on money and would be the other half of a “successful billionaire” ticket. These were choices that made some political sense in a way that even Trump would see as useful to his campaign. There were others — Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina could theoretically attract some Black voters, but more likely might reassure some white suburban types who are uncomfortable with all the racism. And Florida Senator Marco Rubio might have been a draw for the Latino vote and, again, some of those squeamish suburban voters who are a little freaked out about the anti-immigrant rhetoric and see Rubio as more of an establishment type.
Trump’s been openly begging the anti-abortion zealots to back off (temporarily) because he has “to win elections.” And the word was that after the assassination attempt on Saturday, he had ordered that all the speakers tone down their speeches so that they could exploit the moment and “bring the country together” in its time of crisis. (The first two nights of the convention and several nasty Truth Social posts by the candidate quickly proved that to be a fleeting idea.) In several interviews, he has shown that he understands where his campaign’s weaknesses are which would argue for him to use this most high-profile decision in the campaign to try to shore them up.
So of all the choices discussed over the past few weeks, Senator JD Vance of Ohio was the guy who made the least sense. He’s a very aggressive MAGA extremist and his state of Ohio is already in the bag. Most importantly, he appeals to none of the constituencies Trump needs to get him over top. Trump’s not the sharpest tool in the shed on many levels but he usually has a feral instinct for branding and this ticket is the “ultra-MAGA” ticket which seems like the least likely to gain him any votes he didn’t already have. As the Washington Monthly notes, it may not be a very good bet:
Vance was a vociferous Never Trumper until he decided to run for the Senate and assessed that jumping on the Trump train was his best bet to win it. There are seemingly hours of interviews and articles filled with insulting quotes from Vance about Trump and harsh criticism of his character, intelligence and policies. These are going to be played over and over again in the campaign and many have already gone viral. Considering Trump’s penchant for vengeance it’s hard to imagine why he is rewarding such behavior by offering Vance this plum job.