Examining the detailed breakdown of music publisher market shares from 2020 to 2021 (sources: IMPF; Music & Copyright)
If TikTok manages to avoid any potential bans, sales, or restrictions in the United States, it still faces another looming threat. Independent music publishers could significantly impact the platform in the near future, with repercussions that may be more severe than anticipated.
In recent times, Universal Music Group has been battling TikTok almost single-handedly. However, indications suggest that other entities may soon join this battle, potentially intensifying the challenges faced by TikTok.
Aside from the looming threat of government intervention, a group of independent music publishers is now reconsidering their stance on TikTok. This unexpected storm could pose a substantial threat to TikTok’s user experience and overall functionality.
What changes can be expected in user-generated content licensing post the UMG-TikTok conflict? This question is explored in depth in our latest DMN Pro Weekly Report.
An analysis of catalog sizes offers insight into the situation at hand. While Universal Music Group controls copyrights for approximately 3 million song recordings and publishing rights for 4 million songs, the combined catalog of indie publishers is much larger, according to market share estimates.
Theestimations for 2021 are sourced from the Independent Music Publishers International Forum (IMPF), which reported that indie publishers collectively hold a market share of 27.1%, with reference to Music & Copyright data.
It is important to note that these figures only include music publishers with a market share of 5% or less, thereby excluding BMG and Kobalt. When these ‘larger indies’ are factored in, the total market share of indie music publishing skyrockets to 40.1%.
The composition of the group matters significantly. Recently, the National Music Publishers’ Association communicated to its members that it will not be renewsing its contract with TikTok, which is set to expire on April 30th. It is crucial to recognize that not all music publishers are part of the NMPA, and each publisher retains the autonomy to make their own decisions.
What Changes Can Be Expected in User-Generated Content Licensing Post the UMG-TikTok Conflict?
Returning to the IMPF estimate, indie music publishers collectively possess the largest catalog of songs and lyrics, surpassing even Sony Music Publishing in sheer volume. While Sony Music Publishing may boast bigger individual hits, the collective strength of the indie music publishing community lies in their overall vast catalog of songs.
This is assuming that the indie music publishing community acts in a cohesive manner.
Even a relatively modest withdrawal of 10% could have a noticeable impact on TikTok users. Unlike a major entity like UMG, indie music publishers do not possess a single ‘kill switch,’ and major labels hold a larger share of hit songs in their catalogs. Nevertheless, coordinated action by a significant number of indie music publishers could potentially deliver another significant blow following Universal Music Publishing Group’s withdrawal.
And why use the term ‘nuclear option’ in the context of music publishing?
This term gained traction immediately after UMPG’s decision to not renew its TikTok licensing agreement, effectively solidifying UMG’s combined recording and publishing stance.
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