Comment: The aviation industry has been slow to engage with the climate change agenda and new technology that could help it decarbonise is still being developed
Mark Maslin is professor of natural sciences at University College London (UCL) and Iain Hanson is honorary professor at the Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, UCL.
Many of us feel guilt when we fly because it is a very obvious source of carbon emissions. Aviation causes around 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. But we do not perhaps feel the same guilt when we walk into a new building, even though global concrete manufacturing emits closer to 8%. Or when we jump in a petrol car or turn on our gas central heating.
This is because aviation is a very visible symbol of our high-carbon consumption and, until now, the aviation industry has been slow to engage with the climate change agenda. According to the UN, we are looking at global warming of up to just over 3˚C which would be disastrous for the planet and our societies.
Human-caused global warming has just nudged passed 1.5˚C. But science suggests that we could keep close to this temperature increase if we reduced global emissions by 45% by 2030 and reached net zero by 2050.
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Post-COVID, aviation continues to regroup and grow and is set to be a trillion dollar industry by 2030, but it is incredibly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Clear air turbulence events in the North Atlantic have increased by 55% since 1979, and prominent incidents have resulted in deaths, serious injury and damage to aircraft.
Extreme weather events are not just confined to there, with extreme rains and flooding affecting Middle Eastern airports and snowfall crippling UK airports causing considerable disruption.
While aviation is a relatively small contributor to global emissions, the industry is predicted to grow at 4% per year for the foreseeable future. Without meaningful action, net zero by 2050 will never be achieved. New generations of technology coming on-stream are not yet proven nor implementable, and aviation needs to reduce its carbon footprint now.
These five key steps focus on not only decarbonisation but make aviation more sustainable while also improving operational efficiency and safety.
1. Optimise flight planning and airspace
Airlines already try to select the most fuel-efficient routes and altitudes using advanced flight planning systems, AI, and optimisation software. However, future route optimisation could reduce turbulence events and the production of contrails with associated radiative forcing, increasing comfort and safety for passengers as well as contributing positively to the environment.
Optimising aircraft separation and air traffic control flow management can prevent aircraft bunching up and arrival delays because planes are forced into holding patterns, waiting their turn to land at the airport, carrying and burning large amounts of fuel.
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