A new kind of political battle is emerging between America’s parties — one centered on the composition of Congress and congressional redistricting. This process usually occurs every decade, after the US Census finishes its work and releases new demographic information that states use to reconfigure how the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are divided among the 50 states.
But this month, Texas Republicans are scrambling those norms.
Republican lawmakers have begun fielding proposals for the GOP-controlled legislature to redraw their congressional maps in the middle of the decade to give the national party an advantage in the 2026 midterm elections.
It’s a blatant power play — jump-started by President Donald Trump’s desire to offset potential losses next year and win a bigger Republican majority in the House for the second half of his term. At the moment, it looks likely that Republicans might lose some ground in Congress, as has been the trend for presidents’ parties for the last 70 years.
The Logoff
The email you need to stay informed about Trump — without letting the news take over your life.
This mid-decade redistricting effort is not the first time Texas Republicans have aggressively gerrymandered seats to boost their party’s representation in Congress, but it is abnormal for redistricting to happen this early, or as a direct response to a president’s wishes to gain an electoral advantage. And it doesn’t seem like Texas will be the only Republican-controlled state to try this.
This sudden gamesmanship is forcing national and state-level Democrats to consider their own tit-for-tat, mid-decade redistricting efforts — and to confront a harsh reality. Many Democrats lack the political will to bend norms in response to these Republican efforts. And those who do will face steep legal and political obstacles, including from their own party.
Still, that isn’t stopping some Democratic leaders from becoming more vocal. Govs. Kathy Hochul of New York and Phil Murphy of New Jersey have said they are willing to consider mirroring Texas Republicans’ moves. And California Gov. Gavin Newsom will announce his plan to respond to Texas Friday afternoon.
How Republicans are pressing their advantage
Republicans have the upper hand on redistricting. In the majority of states across the country, state legislatures have the primary control and power to draw district lines. That includes the three states where Republicans have signaled they will try to redraw maps before the 2026 midterms — Texas, Ohio, and Missouri — all in which the GOP has unified control of the legislature and the governor’s office.
Through redistricting these states alone, Republicans would be able to gain enough seats to secure a majority after midterm elections. They’d gain about five seats in Texas, anywhere from one to three seats in Ohio, and one seat in Missouri. Republicans currently have a three-seat majority in the House, as a result of resignations and deaths, which shrinks to a two-seat majority if all those vacancies are filled.