Revised NBA In-Season Tournament Win-Loss Projections for Exciting Results

Updated Win-Loss Predictions After NBA In-Season Tournament

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and LeBron JamesZach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers on winning the first-ever NBA Cup. Every player on the roster has earned a moment or five to reflect on their victory—and the extra $500,000 they just pocketed.

The rest of us are free (obligated?) to resume thinking about the bigger picture. And what better way to do that than by delivering a fresh, piping-hot batch of updated win-loss projections for every team?

Working through this exercise is not an exact science. Wins and losses must total 1,230 apiece. The criteria for tackling this project is entirely open-ended after that.

Everything within the realm of reasonable logic is up for consideration: what we’ve seen so far, player injuries and returns, prospective buying or selling on the trade market, internal development, critical or unaddressable flaws, emergent strengths, etc., etc., etc.

My crystal ball has whirred to life. Let us now begin.

Atlanta Hawks (41-41)

Trae Young and Dejounte MurrayKevin C. Cox/Getty Images

If you Google image search “mediocrity,” the return results will comprise a torrent of Atlanta Hawks pictures from 2008 through present day. Don’t bother checking for yourself. I would never lie to you.

Atlanta is actually on pace to finish below .500. Most won’t see a good reason to bump them up. That’s fair. But the Hawks do have some things going for them.

Piecing together a top-five offense amid Trae Young’s wonky shooting splits is an absolute win. Dejounte Murray’s defense feels more gimmicky than substantive this year, but his scoring has been more lethal, and Atlanta is winning the minute he logs without Trae. Jalen Johnson was among the Most Improved Player headliners before fracturing his left wrist.

Any meaningful change to the Hawks’ trajectory begins and ends with their defense. That kind of about-face isn’t coming as currently constructed. Atlanta does a good job forcing turnovers, and that’s about it.

Rewriting the Hawks’ overwhelmingly ordinary fate requires a trade-market overhaul. And the answer is not Pascal Siakam.

Boston Celtics (60-22)

Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Derrick White and Jayson TatumBrian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

Sixty wins almost feels like a formality for the Boston Celtics.

Injury bugs can bite them. Kristaps Porziņģis has already missed time with a strained left calf, and Al Horford is 37. But key absences are the caveat for every team.

Boston is built to withstand them better than most. Its top-end talent is beyond compare in the Eastern Conference. Jayson Tatum is the only player they cannot afford to lose.

Offensive stickiness is a bigger concern,

» …
Read More