- The EUR/USD is treading water in quiet markets to close out the trading year.
- The Euro is heading for a 3% gain against the US Dollar for the year.
- US economic data remains disappointing as the economic outlook softens.
The EUR/USD is staying put on Friday, marking the final trading session of 2023. The Euro (EUR) is on track to finish the year 3% higher against the US Dollar (USD), rallying 5.8% from the year’s low point near 1.0450 in October. Although the EUR/USD is still down almost 2% from 2023’s peak at 1.1275 set in July, the pair is leaning toward the bullish side as broader markets continue to sell off the Greenback in anticipation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024.
The US Dollar is set to end 2023 on a low note as markets place big bets on rate cuts.
With significant Eurozone economic data missing from the calendar until the HCOB Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on January 4, the US data calendar will take the lead in wrapping up the trading year.
The US Chicago PMI for December missed expectations on Friday, registering a contractionary 46.9 compared to November’s 18-month high of 55.8, falling below the median market forecast of 51.0. Softening US economic data continues to paradoxically boost market risk appetite, as a weakening economic outlook increases the odds of an accelerated pace of rate hikes from the Fed in 2024.
The EUR/USD is currently entrenched near 1.1050 on the intraday charts, and as 2023 comes to a close, the Euro is expected to hover between the 50-hour and 200-hour Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The EUR/USD is poised to welcome the new year with technical support from the 200-hour SMA just above the 1.1000 handle.
However, daily candlesticks indicate an overbought scenario, with the Euro pulling back from Thursday’s multi-month highs near 1.1150. Moreover, technical indicators are also showing signs of a potential extended pullback, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retracting from overbought conditions on a 14-day basis.
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