NewsThe mistakes that led New York City astray in 2023 and the...

The mistakes that led New York City astray in 2023 and the path to recovery

I’m honored to write this column — and with writing comes the privilege of hearing from readers.

Below is a sampling of the constructive criticism I’ve received this year from strangers and friends — and my best effort to respond to that criticism.

You can’t blame Mayor Adams or his predecessor for the fact murder is still up, relative to 2019. Murder is up nationwide since 2020. 

Yes, but it rose far faster in New York in 2020 and 2021, compared with the rest of the country.  
In 2022, even after a decline that year, New York murders were still 37% higher than they were in 2019.
Nationwide, by contrast, they were 25% higher. New York likely ended 2023 with murders still 22% higher than in 2019, with murder falling faster in the country as a whole.  
New York, with its vast wealth and lavish public-sector spending, has no excuse for lagging the country. 
New York is still America’s safest big city, so why care about a little increase in murder? 

There’s no law that says we’ll always remain the safest big city.
Contrary to the urbanist creed, a dense city isn’t automatically safe.
In 1990, New York’s murder rate, at 31 per 100,000 people, was more than three times that of the nation’s 9.4 killings per 100,000 people.  
By 2019, the city’s murder rate was just 3.8 per 100,000 people, less than three-fourths of the national rate.  
That decline took a lot of work — and it also meant, over much of the 2010s, bucking the national trend.
Even as murders nationwide rose in the middle of the last decade, they remained near record lows in New York through 2019.  
So, yes, we should be concerned that by 2022, New York’s murder rate, at 5.2 per 100,000 people, had crept up to 83% of the national average.
We likely didn’t reverse this poor performance, compared with the country, in 2023. 
Mayor Adams can’t do anything about the migrant crisis. It’s a national issue.

It’s true that it’s President Biden’s job to secure the border — but Adams has never consistently suggested the president do so.  
And the direct strain on the city budget caused by the migrant crisis — at least $4 billion a year, according to the mayor’s budget projections — is due to the city’s unique “right to shelter.”
Though Adams has made some positive tweaks, including trying to impose time limits on stays, he has not questioned the 40-year-old legal settlement that supposedly obligates the city to provide everyone with shelter. 
Immigrants are good for the city anyway, so why fret?

Sure, New York City was built on immigration, and the city was home to half a million unauthorized immigrants before 2022.  
But there’s a big difference between then and now: Previous immigrants used informal networks to secure private housing and off-the-books jobs in a booming economy.   » … Read More

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Subscribe Today

GET EXCLUSIVE FULL ACCESS TO PREMIUM CONTENT

SUPPORT NONPROFIT JOURNALISM

EXPERT ANALYSIS OF AND EMERGING TRENDS IN CHILD WELFARE AND JUVENILE JUSTICE

TOPICAL VIDEO WEBINARS

Get unlimited access to our EXCLUSIVE Content and our archive of subscriber stories.

Exclusive content

Latest article

More article