Donald Trump’s dominant performance in the New Hampshire primary confirms what already seemed clear – that the former president appears headed toward his third straight Republican nomination.
But embedded in Tuesday’s 11-point victory over Nikki Haley, the former president’s only remaining major rival for the GOP nomination, were some flashing red lights for Mr. Trump’s prospects in November, when he is likely to face President Joe Biden again.
Why We Wrote This
With New Hampshire being a battleground state, the results there provide some signals about November. While Donald Trump won strong support from Republicans, he was far less popular among independents.
In short, Mr. Trump is both strong and weak as a general election candidate. He engenders fierce loyalty among his “Make America Great Again” base and already has lined up nearly the entire Republican establishment in Washington behind him. At the same time, a not-insignificant portion of the GOP electorate is leery of another Trump nomination, as seen in the New Hampshire results. And many independent voters – who may decide the winner in November – are deeply opposed to his candidacy.
Overall, Mr. Trump beat Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, 54% to 43%. That would typically be seen as a solid win in an open primary – that is, a contest with no incumbent running. “You’d say, ‘Wow, this is someone who has a chunk of the party,’” says Chris Galdieri, a political scientist at Saint Anselm College in Manchester,