Uncovering the Truth: Exploring the ‘Shoplifting Epidemic’ with Six Key Questions

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Media reports in 2023 raised concern about a new wave of shoplifting in the UK. Some people believed that the cost of living crisis and inadequate police responses are driving this increase in crime.

Let’s dive deeper and assess six of the most popular assertions about shoplifting in 2023. Are they myth or reality?

1. Is there really a shoplifting epidemic?

Shoplifting has increased—but a significant portion of this increase was because it dropped 60% during the pandemic. This makes reports of year-on-year changes misleading.

Many other crime types are still below pre-pandemic levels since we started working from home more. But by 2023, our shopping habits had returned to normal, providing cover for shoplifting to return to, and surpass, pre-pandemic levels.

Shoplifting reported to the police in the first six months of 2023 averaged 7% above the expected pre-pandemic level. This increased to 20% above the expected level in the summer months. Although most shoplifting cases are not reported to the police, the available data suggests that the increase is not as dramatic as some accounts suggest.

Myth or reality? It’s a half-myth. Some of this still needs to be clarified with better data—but there is definitely a problem.

2. Has the cost-of-living crisis driven people to theft?

Blaming the cost-of-living crisis for the rise in shoplifting has become a common narrative. However, several facts don’t support this theory. For example, shoplifting by dependent drug users is not linked to the cost-of-living crisis.

Similarly, high-end department stores like John Lewis attributing the theft of their products to the cost-of-living issue suggests that organized gangs are operating for profit. According to retailers themselves, this explanation contradicts the idea that increased shoplifting is due to cost-of-living issues.

Myth or reality? This is a myth and a half-truth.

3. Are organized gangs to blame?

Another version of events suggests that organized gangs are the problem.

The pandemic boosted online shopping, making e-fencing of stolen goods easier, which, in turn, fuels shoplifting. E-fencing on online marketplaces is more efficient and less risky than traditional street or pub transactions.

As a result, some gangs now steal to order. A recent estimate suggests that stolen and counterfeit goods account for 10% of online marketplaces.

With the retail sector expanding, new, more tempting products are more easily available in large, anonymous self-service shops. The increase in mini-supermarkets means that high-value items are closer to the door and there are fewer staff between the thief and the exit.

In conclusion, it’s likely that changes in the retail sector are inadvertently encouraging shoplifting. While we need more evidence, organized crime does offer a plausible explanation for the post-pandemic increase in shoplifting. Learn more  » …
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