The TikTok ban is swiftly approaching on Jan. 19. But there’s plenty of uncertainty about what will actually happen to the app on that day. TIME talked to experts, who contend that regardless of what actually happens on Sunday, the TikTok user experience is likely to drastically degrade in the weeks to come.
Will users be able to access TikTok?
There’s a strong possibility that TikTok will shut down completely. During a Supreme Court hearing last week, a lawyer for TikTok said that the app will “go dark” if the court didn’t pause the ban. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that TikTok is preparing to shut its app on Sunday: that anyone who tries to log onto the app will be directed to a message alerting them to the ban and prompting them to download their data if they wish to do so. Users in India, which banned TikTok in 2020, are met with a similar message.
A full website block would go above and beyond what the law mandates, which prohibits app stores and third party service providers from hosting the app and its related data. Let’s say ByteDance, the Chinese companies that owns TikTok, simply adhered to that set of rules. On Sunday, new users would be cut off from downloading the app. Those with TikTok already on their phone, however, would still have access to the app, and not risk any legal penalties for logging on.
But TikTok would no longer be able to update the software, making it buggier and slower over time. The app’s security would also weaken, making users more susceptible to hackers. In this scenario, TikTok would die a slow death, as its technology degrades and its social fabric weakens with users departing for other platforms.
Is using a VPN an option?
Many TikTok users may attempt to use a VPN (virtual private network) or order to access the app. VPNs encrypt location data, allowing users to make it look like they’re somewhere else in the world. After X (formerly Twitter) was banned in Brazil, demand for VPNs skyrocketed, despite the government threatening users with a $9,000-a-day fine for using such workarounds.
Kate Ruane, director of the Free Expression Project at the Center for Democracy and Technology, says that VPNs would allow users to access TikTok legally. (The CDT joined an amicus brief supporting TikTok and its users.) But Ruane predicts that the experience will quickly worsen for those users, especially because TikTok files won’t be allowed to be hosted within the U.S. “There will be distance that data has to travel, which may degrade the service, since video in particular is highly dependent upon high fidelity broadband Internet access,” she says.
Bruce Randall Donald, a computer science and math professor at Duke University, adds that VPNs may not work very well on smartphones, the very medium that TikTok is designed for. “They’re not going to work very well on appliances like an iPhone,